To say the Philadelphia Flyers got off to a bad start this season is an understatement. Struggling with an 0-5-3 run out of the gate, the Flyers have somewhat rebounded with a 3-2-1 run of late, but they still find themselves last in the Eastern Conference by points percentage. As of Wednesday, the Flyers are five points back of third in the Metropolitan Division, and six points out of a wild card spot.
The team needs to find a way to consistently compete for a full 60 minutes.
I’m going to continue monitoring the state of the entire Flyers roster as they attempt to crawl back into the playoff race, but for today I want to take time to focus on pending restricted free agent Matvei Michkov and analyze how his game is trending.
Exit interviews last spring
It’s no secret Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet was less than satisfied with the entirety of Michkov’s game last season. Questions about Michkov’s fitness dominated early media scrums last year and his all-around commitment to the way the Flyers expect him to approach the game also became part of the narrative.
Despite these concerns, Michkov ended last year tied for third in team scoring after producing 20G-31A. He averaged 14:50 of time on ice with his shifts coming at even strength and the power play. Michkov finished the year with a satisfactory rating of zero on the plus/minus scale, and contributed 16G-23A at even strength. Only 4G-8A came on the power play.
At the year-end exit interviews, Tocchet admitted he needed to make some adjustments to his approach coaching Michkov, but also stated he expected Michkov to train harder and arrive in better shape to start the 2026-27 season.
Early impact in 2026-27
Michkov is off to a solid start this year. Through 14 games he leads the Flyers with eight goals and sits second in team scoring. Over the course of his first 14 games last season, he had contributed just 2G-5A.
This year Michkov is averaging 15:48 of ice time and is coming off a game that saw him deployed for over 21 minutes versus Columbus. Unfortunately, Michkov’s defensive metrics are off. He’s minus-7 in the segment.
Having said that, here’s a look at the Flyers' team stats overall:
I’m positive the Flyers as a team are working hard to improve the look of these statistical categories. Philadelphia needs to find more scoring throughout its lineup and keep the puck out of their net at even strength. Michkov’s eight goals are four clear of the next best Flyer, Trevor Zegras.
What has changed for Michkov?
It might come as a surprise, especially considering how hard Tocchet was pushing the fitness and details narrative, that Michkov’s overall approach has fallen off in some categories compared to last season.
Courtesy of NHL Edge here’s a look at some of Michkov’s skill ratings compared to the rest of the NHL:
Given what these categories reflect, it’s clear Michkov isn’t playing faster or shooting the puck harder than he has in the past. Which leads me to investigate his shot volume and if he’s directing shots on goal from more high danger areas of the ice this year:
Admittingly it’s a small sample size this season, but Michkov is scoring at a higher rate despite the fact he isn’t finding pucks at the same rate in high danger areas of the offensive zone.
Trajectory
In his rookie 2024-25 season, under the tutelage of then Flyers coach John Tortorella, Michkov produced 26G-37A. His stats dropped off in Year 2, but it’s not like he’s the first player to suffer through some growing pains in his sophomore season.
Based on his impact so far this season, Michkov is on pace score 48 goals, which isn’t likely, but it could happen and it’s reasonable to assume he should eclipse the career-high 26 tucks he had as a rookie. I’m comfortable stating he will produce more than the 12 assists he currently is on pace for as well. The bottom line is Michkov will likely contribute more than he did last season and approach, if not surpass, his rookie results.
Contract extension
Michkov is due a new contract next summer. Coming off his entry-level deal, and with the salary cap rising year over year, I’m curious to see how the Flyers value his services for the next several seasons.
Through his first 175 games in the NHL Michkov has averaged 0.71 points per game. For comparison, here’s what some of the players in his draft class have averaged and their contract status moving forward:
Connor Bedard: 0.93 PPG, signed through 2030 with a $15 million AAV
Leo Carlssson: 0.73 PPG, signed through 2030 with an $18 million AAV
Adam Fantilli: 0.65 PPG, signed through 2031 with a $13.75 million AAV
It’s important to consider Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli are centres compared to Michkov who plays the wing. Skaters playing the middle usually get paid more than wingers.
So what does that mean exactly?
Ivan Demidov, for example, signed an extension with the Montreal Canadiens that kicks in next season at $9.15 million and he's averaging 0.77 points per game to this point in his career. Does Demidov’s deal align with how the Flyers value Michkov going forward? Or, if Michkov maintains his current goal scoring pace, does his camp feel he is as valuable as Cutter Gauthier is to the Anaheim Ducks? Gauthier is signed through 2031 with a $13.5 million AAV (0.71 PPG).
Conclusion
I don’t have a crystal ball, but the Philadelphia Flyers are having trouble putting the puck in the back of the net and Michkov is their top goal-scoring threat. It feels to me like Michkov might be flying under the radar more than he should be in relation to the Flyers' future plans.
A lot of attention was given to the offer sheet Philadelphia signed Carlsson to in the summer, but Michkov is going to be in line for a massive raise of his own in 2027.
